Since the surge in international oil prices, people have begun to realize that oil, which is an important source of energy, will also be depleted. Although oil prices have plummeted recently, the shadows of the past have not been erased. Coupled with the recent easy hijacking of the 310,000-ton Sirius supertanker, Somali pirates have felt the fragility of this energy pipeline. Although China does not rely on fuel for power generation, it still imports more than 350 million tons per year.
one. China's energy structure
The bigger problem is that China's energy structure is unreasonable (see table below).
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coal
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oil
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Hydraulic
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natural gas
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nuclear energy
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70%
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twenty one%
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5%
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3%
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1%
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More than 70% of China's energy is dependent on coal. Coal plus oil accounts for more than 90%. These two sources of energy, together with natural gas, are the main culprit in the production of carbon dioxide. Therefore, China’s carbon dioxide emissions have surpassed the United States in 2006 to become the world’s number one. China's emissions are 6.2 billion metric tons, of which 550 million metric tons are from cement. The US emissions are 5.8 billion metric tons, of which 50 million metric tons are from cement. Although nuclear energy does not produce carbon dioxide, it is not a renewable energy source, but it is also depleted. Although hydropower is a renewable energy source, most rivers in China are mixed with a large amount of muddy sand. In the past, there have been lessons from the Sanmenxia of the Yellow River. The current Three Gorges of the Yangtze River is still uncertain, and the amount of hydropower development is limited. Even the coal with the largest reserves in China is very limited, and will be mined by the end of this century. At that time, all thermal power plants had to close down.
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The only inexhaustible source of all energy is solar energy.
two. China's solar energy
Due to China's geographical location, China has a very large source of solar energy. The total annual solar radiation throughout the country is 3340-8400 MJ/m2 with a median value of 5852 MJ/m2. From the distribution of total solar radiation in the country, the total annual solar radiation in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the Northwest, North China, Northeast China, and some low-latitude regions such as Yunnan, Guangdong, and Hainan are above 5000 MJ/m2, which is China. An area rich or rich in solar energy resources. The solar resources in the Yangtze River Basin and the eastern and central regions of Sichuan and Guizhou are inferior, and the total annual solar radiation is below 5000 MJ/m2.
three. China is a giant in solar panel production, using gnomes
China ranks first in the world in the production of solar panels. It is estimated that China's solar cell production capacity in 2008 will reach 2 GW, or 2 million kW. It accounts for 27.5% of the world's solar panel production, ranking first in the world. However, China's own installed capacity is still very poor. At present, China's solar power generation is only about 80,000 kilowatts, accounting for only 0.01% of the total power generation. That is to say, 95% of the solar panels produced in China are exported, leaving only 5% for their own use. The geographical position of Germany is equivalent to the latitude of Harbin to Mohe in China, and its solar energy is only equivalent to the worst fifth category. In 2007, Germany's power generation has reached 2.7 million kilowatts, accounting for 55% of global solar power generation. In 2008, it will increase by 20%, ranking first in the world. And if you look at the ratio of the total amount of electricity generated, it will be farther apart. The proportion of solar power generation in Germany to total power generation has now reached 14%. It can be seen that the German government attaches importance to it.
China is also planning to increase its investment in renewable energy, including solar energy. However, the planned number and growth rate are very small.
The following is China's 11th Five-Year Plan:
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Technical category
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Planning target (10,000 kW)
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Key area
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Small photovoltaic power generation
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10
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Tibet, Gansu, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Xinjiang,
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Urban roof system and large landmarks
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5
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Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong
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Large photovoltaic power station
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5
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Stone Forest, Lhasa, Dunhuang and Erdos
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2. Power supply in remote areas
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15
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Tibet, Qinghai, Gansu, Xinjiang, Yunnan, Sichuan
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3. Solar thermal power generation
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5
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Inner Mongolia
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total
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300,000 kilowatts
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That is to say, China will have only 300,000 kilowatts of all solar power generation by 2010. Less than one-sixth of the solar panels produced in 2008. The National Development and Reform Commission also proposed that by 2020, solar power generation will be only 1.8 million kilowatts, and it has not yet reached the total amount of solar panels produced in 2008.
Why is there such a situation? Obviously this is not because China is backward in technology. The fundamental reason is that import and export are completely dominated by the laws of the market economy. Foreign countries have such needs and have markets, so they can export, but in China they are completely It is dominated by the planned economy. If the country does not order, there will be no market. This is also the crux of the backwardness of China's solar power generation.
four. Ways to develop solar power
In fact, it can be said that solar power generation in many capitalist countries abroad is completely dominated by the government and is also a planned economy. Only they attach great importance to solar power generation. There are two main ways for them to develop solar power, or two markets.
1. Establish a large solar power station. However, to establish a large power station must consider the location, the most ideal location is the desert area, and this desert must also be close to the big city. Therefore, China's first large-scale solar power station is planned to be built in the Dunhuang area of Gansu to supply industrial power in Lanzhou, Gansu. Even so, Dunhuang left Lanzhou with a distance of several hundred kilometers. Solar power generation is low-voltage direct current, but also becomes high-voltage AC or high-voltage direct current for long-distance transmission. It also has a series of transmission and distribution technical problems to be solved. And such a small solar power station (100,000 kilowatts) will have to invest 760 million US dollars. So this can only be a demonstration project, and it is by no means a way to promote it in China.
2. Adopt the roof plan of Germany and California. This is a good way to mobilize the masses, basically by individual investment and state subsidies. However, because most people abroad (especially the middle class) live in homes with their own roofs, most of the middle class in China who live in the city live in apartments without their own roofs. Only a few high-income groups may have their own villas, but they are also for vacation. And most of China's middle class has the ability to invest in a few thousand dollars of solar water heaters, but to invest in a tens of thousands of solar power plants should be considered. More importantly, in 2000, the German Parliament passed the Renewable Energy Law, which was revised in 2004 to implement the electricity purchase compensation method. According to different forms of solar power generation, the government granted a period of 20 years, 0.45-0.62 euros/ A subsidy of 5 degrees (equivalent to 5 yuan), which is almost 10 times the price of general thermal power generation. The Chinese government does not have such subsidies. Although most of the rural residents have their own roofs, their economic strength is even less likely to invest in solar power plants themselves, and how many wealthy yurts will build such mobile power generation equipment. This may still require government support. Although Shanghai has also proposed 100,000 solar roof plans, it seems that it can only be a government act, and it is unlikely to be invested by individuals. And maybe it's not the real residential roof, because there are probably not many roofs available in Shanghai.
So it seems that these two approaches are not suitable for China's national conditions, perhaps this is why China is quite conservative in solar power generation. Therefore, China must find a way to adapt to China's national conditions and quickly spread.
Perhaps the most promising and popular in China is the solar LED streetlight project. Because it does not require large sites first, and it is “self-produced and sold”, it does not require long-distance transmission and distribution, and even the inverter is not needed, because LEDs are also powered by low-voltage DC. The question is mainly how big is the size of this market and how effective is it?
Fives. How big is the market for solar LED street lamps?
According to relevant estimates, the total number of existing street lamps in China is about 100 million baht (also estimated to be 200 million baht) and is growing at a rate of 20% per year. If this billion street lamps can be converted into 60 million 盏 250 watt street lamps, Assuming that the 60 million street lamps are all converted into solar LED street lights, a total of 15 million kilowatts of power can be saved. Assuming that every street lamp works 12 hours a day, it will save 65.7 billion kWh in one year. The total power generation of the Three Gorges Hydropower Station in 2007 was 61.603 billion kWh. Therefore, the energy saved after changing all the street lamps in the country to solar street lamps will exceed the annual power generation of a Three Gorges hydropower station. This is an extremely amazing number. It is necessary to know that the total investment of the Three Gorges Project exceeds 180 billion yuan, plus more than 40 billion yuan of transmission and distribution projects totaling more than 220 billion yuan. There are also more than one million immigration issues, plus many unpredictable problems with the ecological environment.
So, what is the market capacity of China's solar LED street lamps? According to the Taiwan Optical Industry Technology Development Association, the market size of global LED street lamps is expected to reach 1.04 billion US dollars in 2008, and the Chinese market will account for about 560 million US dollars. The number of new LED street lamps in China will reach 500,000 in 2008. It is estimated that in 2009, global LED street lights will rise sharply from this year's 900,000 baht to 2.1 million baht, and the penetration rate will exceed 1%. In 2010, the global LED street light market will grow to 4.4 million baht, and the penetration rate will increase to more than 2%. According to past growth rates, it is assumed that China will still increase by more than 20% in 2009, at least to 600,000. If the original high-pressure sodium lamp consumes 250 watts per watt, then the total power consumption will reach 150,000 kW. After switching to solar street lamps, not only will this energy be saved, but also a considerable amount of solar energy can be emitted. Assuming that the LED street light is only 100 watts per turn, the required solar panel is about 4 times the power, which is 400 watts. 600,000 kWh requires 240,000 kW of solar panels. It has far exceeded the total amount of solar panels used today.
In fact, China's entire streetlight market is very large, with only 17 million installed in 2007. Of course, most of them are ordinary AC high-pressure sodium lamps, not solar LED street lamps. If the total number of street lights installed in 2009 can reach 20 million baht, and all switch to solar LED street lights, the total power of the required solar panels will reach 8 million kilowatts. The NDRC’s task of 1.8 million kilowatts by 2020 will be completed 4.4 times in 2009 next year. And in three years, its total power will exceed 24 million kilowatts, far exceeding the total installed capacity of the Three Gorges hydropower station (22.5 million kilowatts) caused by 18 years.
What's more important is that the development of solar LED street lights does not require the government to concentrate such huge manpower, material resources and financial resources. It does not need millions of immigrants, and there are no ecological concerns. As long as the power of local governments at all levels can be mobilized. carry out. And this does not require additional investment from all levels of government, because these street lights are already in the plan, just to change the original high-pressure sodium lamp to solar LED street lights.
six. Comparison of solar LED street lamps and traditional high-pressure sodium lamps
Then there is only one problem left. What is the comparison of the cost of solar LED street lamps with the traditional high-pressure sodium lamps? It can be said that solar LED street lights have the following advantages:
1. Solar LED streetlights use clean, renewable energy, which reduces CO2 emissions compared to conventional high-pressure sodium lamps. If the 20 million street lamps in 2009 were all switched to solar LED street lights, they could reduce 25.8 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions, equivalent to $10.3 billion in carbon dioxide abatement costs.
2. The biggest problem with traditional AC power supply circuit lights is the laying of transmission and distribution cables, which increases the consumption of valuable copper resources. It is necessary to dig trenches and damage the road surface. And these streetlight cables are still the ideal target for theft. It is very simple to set up a solar street light. It is like planting a big tree, dig a pit and bury it.
3. AC power supply is 15% less efficient than solar power, which means that to get the same output power, AC power should be input 15% more power. Moreover, there is a problem of power factor. If no compensation is added, it will cause an increase in the reactive power of the power grid.
4. The biggest advantage of solar LED street lights is that they do not need to pay for electricity. The annual electricity bill for a 250-watt high-pressure sodium lamp is about 766 yuan. The electricity bill for 20 million street lamps is 153.3 billion yuan.
5. The life of ordinary high-pressure sodium lamps is only 3,000-5,000 hours, and the life of LEDs can reach 30,000-50,000 hours, and with the advancement of technology, the life of LEDs is likely to be as high as 100,000 hours.
Of course, solar LED street lights also have some problems and shortcomings:
1. In some places where there is insufficient sunshine, it is necessary to increase the area of the solar panel and the capacity of the battery. Where the wind is relatively large, increasing the area of the solar panel will reduce its wind resistance, but it can use LED street lights with complementary scenery.
2. The cost of solar panels is still relatively high, about 20 yuan / watt, which is the main cost of solar LED street lights. However, the unit price of solar panels is rapidly decreasing, and the price of polysilicon reached its peak in 2008, about $470/kg. However, it is now falling at an alarming rate. It is estimated that in less than a year or two, it will fall to the original $40/kg. The unit price of thin-film solar cells will soon drop to 7 yuan / watt, which is three times lower than the current.
In fact, China is now facing the problem of overproduction of polysilicon. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a warning. The production capacity of China's polysilicon plan has reached 177,000 tons, equivalent to 4.72 times of global production in 2007 and China's current production. 88 times. In 2008, China already had a production capacity of 18,000 tons, with actual production of about 2,000 tons, while domestic consumption was about 8,000 tons (mainly after the import of raw materials into solar panels).
Recently, NanoSolar of Silicon Valley in the United States has introduced a thin-film solar cell called "PowerSheet" which can be printed. It uses a kind of "solar ink" to print a thin metal film like aluminum foil to form a solar cell. . It can "print" a few hundred meters of solar cells in a minute. Its manufacturing cost per watt is less than $0.30. It is 1/10 of the past. After their plants were put into production in 2008, they could produce 430 megawatts of solar panels per year. Therefore, China's polysilicon and solar panels will soon face overproduction. You must find a way out for these excess solar panels. Solar LED street lights seem to be the best choice.
So what is the cost of erecting solar LED street lights and ordinary high-pressure sodium lamps?
Nowadays, many experts often compare only the cost of the two with a single pole. This is very unreasonable. Even the cost of adding cables is unreasonable. Because high-pressure sodium lamp street lamps that use AC power should also include construction costs. According to the budget of a city in Jiangsu Province, the cost of all the expenses allocated to each AC high-pressure sodium lamp street lamp is about 15,000 yuan. If solar LED street lights are used, every solar LED street light can't use that much if it is calculated according to the current price of solar panels. About 12,000 yuan is enough. Therefore, in terms of the cost of setting up street lamps, solar LED street lamps are much cheaper than traditional high-pressure sodium lamps. More importantly, solar street lights have no electricity bills. Each 250-watt street lamp saves about 750 yuan per year. 10 kilometers requires about 666 street lights, saving 500,000 yuan a year. Therefore, no matter in terms of erection cost, annual maintenance and operating expenses, the superiority of solar LED street lamps is unmatched by AC high-pressure sodium lamp street lamps.
It can be seen that the use of solar LED street lights is by no means an insignificant trivial matter, but a major event involving China's energy policy, which involves the rapid development of solar energy utilization in China in a short period of time. After the development of solar LED street lights, it can realize 8 million kilowatts of green renewable energy in one year. In three years, it is equivalent to building a new green Three Gorges hydropower station. It can increase our renewable energy to more than 4%. This is the most effective short-term, fast and fast-paced approach to accelerating the transformation of China's energy structure in the shortest period of time. Moreover, this can be done by local people's governments at all levels. It is not necessary for the central government to organize a huge project like the Three Gorges, but it can achieve better results. Why not do it?
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